Davids Final Word: Pre-Election Facts, Notes and Impressions

(Deutsche Version am Ende des Beitrags)

Elections in Germany - What's at Stake?
I would like to express several thoughts on the federal elections on September 18, especially for our American readers, who are perhaps not so familiar with the details of German politics and German election law.

Election Law
Germany's election law forms the foundation for the oft referred to German consensus model. The voter primarily determines the distribution of seats among the individual parties in the German Parliament (Bundestag). In the Anglo-Saxon model, on the other hand, candidates are elected whose party affiliation then defines the balance of power in the parliament. The political leadership in Germany - the Chancellor - is elected by the parliament, not directly by the people.

Importantly, the German election law strives for a proportional representation of the parties (proportional to their election results) in parliament while the Anglo-Saxon - through the majority rule in the individual electoral districts - is based on the "winner takes it all" principle. The German model is "more fair" for the parties because it also takes into consideration the results of the losers, or in other words the smaller parties, but the result then usually fails to produce a clear majority for one party in parliament.

Therefore we cannot reckon with an absolute majority for a party in the coming election, but instead with the creation of a coalition of different parties.

The Coalitions
Germany has been ruled since 1998 by a left coalition of SPD and Greens ("red-green"). A re-election of this coalition in the current election is practically impossible. Realistically, only two coalitions are possible: The first would be a coalition including the conservative CDU/CSU and the economically-minded FDP ("black-yellow"), the second would be a "grand coalition" consisting of the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

Because Chancellor Schroeder has tied his political future to a coalition between the SPD and the Greens ("red-green") - a coalition that is almost certainly not going to be around anymore - it can be predicted without risk that:

- Schroeder will no longer be Chancellor. Merkel will be Chancellor.

- All Green ministers - Foreign Minister Fischer, Environmental Minister Trittin, Consumer Protection Minister Kuehnast - will no longer belong to the government.

The Politics of the new German Government
Grand Coalition: There will be little progress with the necessary restructuring of the German welfare state - the Social Democrats and the socially-conservative (in the sense that they don't want to change the social-system) elements of the CDU/CSU will only make changes in the pension, health and unemployment benefits systems in a very careful way that conforms to the system. A reform of the union wage contract system is not to be expected. On the other hand, positive steps are to be expected on the relationship between the federal and state governments. The responsibilities between the state levels - now marked by a mish-mash in the framework of the German consensus model, will be more clearly defined. Additionally, a clear and tough line in questions of internal security can be expected.

Black-Yellow Coalition: There will at least be an attempt to reform the welfare state. I am however skeptical as to whether major changes will be made to the health care system. The models of the CDU/CSU and FDP are too different and by themselves hardly supportable by a majority.
Conversely, a reduction in the power of the unions is possible. I expect little for innovative, new competitors in light of the various hindrances to the market. Especially the FDP will block things here. The party is, indeed, pro-business, but not pro-competition. The party is strongly oriented towards the interests of its clientele: Doctors, drug-store owners, lawyers. The FDP will also prevent the passage of tough laws in the fight against terrorism.

The greatest positive in a "black-yellow" coalition is to be seen in the dynamic of a new start.

Relationship with the USA
...will improve under a Chancellor Merkel, mostly with a "black-yellow" coalition. Merkel experienced the Communist rule of force in the former DDR (GDR); she knows the meaning of a close cooperation with a strong force for freedom like the USA.

In terms of substance, however, Merkel will not act differently than Schroeder: no German soldiers in Iraq, no support for a hard line against Iran.

The Media
My impression: Other than in past elections, the support of the media for "red-green" is not overwhelming. Schroeder's record is simply too sobering.

A Chancellor Merkel can, however, only expect a short honeymoon period. After that, all of her steps in the direction of better relations with the USA will be accompanied by a critical media echo.

And that means that this blog will have plenty to write about well into the future.

(Click link below for German version, translation to English by Ray D.)

Wahlen in Deutschland - worum geht es?

Besonders für unsere amerikanischen Leser, die vielleicht mit den Besonderheiten der deutschen Politik und des deutschen Wahlrechts nicht so vertraut sind, möchte ich einige Überlegungen zur Bundestagswahl am 18.9.2005 äußern.

Das Wahlrecht
Deutschlands Wahlrecht formt die Basis für das oft zitierte deutsche Konsens-Modell. Der Wähler bestimmt mit seiner Stimmabgabe in erster Linie die prozentuale Verteilung der Sitze im Deutschen Bundestag auf die einzelnen Parteien. Im angelsächsischen Modell werden hingegen Kandidaten gewählt, deren Parteizugehörigkeit dann die Machtverhältnisse im Parlament definiert. Die politische Führung in Deutschland - der Bundeskanzler - wird vom Parlament gewählt, nicht direkt von der Bevölkerung.

Wichtig ist, daß das deutsche Wahlrecht eine proportionale Repräsentation der Parteien im Parlament anstrebt (proportional zu ihrem Wahlergebnis), während das angelsächsische System - über das Mehrheitswahlrecht in den einzelnen Wahl-Distrikten - auf das Prinzip "winner takes it all" setzt. Das deutsche Modell ist "gerechter" für die Parteien, denn es berücksichtigt auch die Ergebnisse der Verlierer bzw. der kleineren Parteien, aber im Ergebnis fehlt es im Parlament in der Regel an einer eindeutigen Mehrheit für eine Partei.

So ist denn für die bevorstehende Wahl in Deutschland nicht mit der absoluten Mehrheit einer Partei zu rechnen, sondern mit der Bildung einer Koalition aus verschiedenen Parteien.

Die Koalitionen
Deutschland wurde seit 1998 von einer linken Koalition aus SPD und Grünen ("rot-grün") regiert. Eine Bestätigung dieser Koalition in der jetzigen Wahl ist praktisch ausgeschlossen. Realistisch sind nur zwei Koalitionen möglich: zum einen eine Koalition aus der konservativen CDU/CSU und der wirtschaftsnahen FDP ("schwarz-gelbe" Koalition), zum anderen eine "große Koalition" aus CDU/CSU und SPD.

Da Kanzler Schröder sein politisches Schicksal mit einer rot-grünen Koalition verbunden hat - die es mit an Sicherheit grenzender Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht mehr geben wird - kann ohne Risiko prognostiziert werden:

- Schröder wird nicht Bundeskanzler bleiben. Merkel wird Bundeskanzler.

- Alle grünen Minister - Außenminister Fischer, Umweltminister Trittin, Ernährungsministerin Kühnast - werden der neuen Regierung nicht mehr angehören.

Die Politik der neuen Bundesregierung
Große Koalition: Es wird wenig Fortschritte beim notwendigen Umbau des deutschen Wohlfahrtsstaates geben - die Sozialdemokraten und die sozial-konservativen Teile der CDU/CSU werden Veränderungen in der Renten-, Kranken- und Arbeitslosenversichrung nur vorsichtig und systemkonform umsetzen. Eine Reform des Tarifkartells ist nicht zu erwarten. Positive Schritte sind hingegen beim Verhältnis zwischen der Bundes- und der Länderebene zu erwarten. Die Verantwortlichkeiten zwischen den staatlichen Ebenen - jetzt im Rahmen des deutschen Konsens-Modells durch Misch-Masch gekennzeichnet - werden klarer definiert. Außerdem ist eine klare, harte Linie bei Fragen der Inneren Sicherheit zu erwarten.

Schwarz-gelbe Koalition: Es wird zumindestens den Versuch einer Reform des Wohlfahrtsstaates geben. Ich bin aber skeptisch, ob es tatsächlich zu einem großen Wurf bei der Krankenversicherung kommt. Die Modelle von CDU/CSU und der FDP sind zu verschieden und jedes für sich kaum mehrheitsfähig.

Dagegen ist eine Einschränkung der Macht der Gewerkschaften wahrscheinlich. Wenig erwarte ich bei den vielfältigen Marktbehinderungen für innovative, neue Wettbewerber. Insbesondere die FDP wird hier blockieren. Die Partei ist zwar pro-business, aber nicht pro Wettbewerb. Sie ist sehr stark an den Interessen ihrer Klientel orientiert: Ärzte, Apotheker, Rechtsanwälte. An der FDP wird auch der Versuch scheitern, scharfe Sicherheitsgesetze im Kampf gegen den Terrorismus durchzusetzen.

Der größte Nutzen einer schwarz-gelben Koalition ist in der Dynamik eines Neuanfangs zu sehen.

Die Beziehungen zu den USA
...werden sich unter einer Kanzlerin Merkel verbessern, am ehesten in einer schwarz-gelben Koalition. Merkel hat in der ehemaligen DDR die kommunistische Zwangsherrschaft erlebt; sie weiß um die Bedeutung einer engen Kooperation mit einer starken freiheitlichen Kraft wie den USA.

In der Substanz wird Merkel allerdings nicht anders handeln als Schröder: keine deutsche Soldaten im Irak, keine Unterstützung für eine harte Linie gegenüber Iran.

Die Medien
Mein Eindruck: anders als in früheren Wahlkämpfen war das Engagement der linken Medien für rot-grün nicht überwältigend. Die Bilanz von Schröder fiel zu vernichtend aus.

Eine Kanzlerin Merkel wird jedoch nur eine kurze Phase der Schonung erwarten dürfen. Danach wird jeder ihrer Schritte zugunsten besserer Beziehungen zu den USA von einem kritischen Medienecho begleitet werden.

Was bedeutet, daß es für diesen Blog auch in der Zukunft reichlich Themen geben wird...

Comments

[disillusioned_german]

Germany's having the same problem Italy has - too many parties are taking part in elections and you never get one party with a clear majority (unlike the US where it's either Republicans or Democrats or the UK - in the olden days - when it was either Labour or Tories). Since 1945 Germany has always been ruled by coalitions which always meant compromise. It doesn't look like anything's going to change this time around either. There will never be radical change in Germany because most Germans want big government. Problem is: if you have loads of civil servants nothing will change, ever. I don't know how many of you have seen the brilliant "Yes, Minister" and "Yes, Prime Minister" programmes in the 80s but I guess it pretty much shows what European politics are like. (http://www.yes-minister.com)

[SeanM]

I am anticipating a CDU/CSU/FDP with 51+% of the vote. Strike activity can be expected to increase substantially, under the onslaught of which I expect Merkel's government to retreat, as the French did: there is no stomach here for deregulation, let alone free market solutions. I expect a media hostile to both the new government as well as the USA. Balance will mostly be provided by the blogosphere from sites such as Medienkritik.

This prediction is worth what you paid for it...

[playertwo]

let's just hope that like a lot of things from the states, blogging will start to erode the eurosocialism that is destroying germany. angie is a start!
i have many german friends and even more acquaintances. theyre starting to feelthe heat and can also hear footsteps with the former eastern states and china eating their lunch. in detroit this last week the fall of mb to 21st on the qc standings was enough to cause dead silence in the room.
look, freedom is breaking out allover the place and germany like france is pissed that they arent causing it. so what, when they start losing their asses you won't hear so much michael mooreism out of berlin and innovation and changes will start to break out. it always looks like everything is falling apart right when people start to figure things out.
Americans take so much for granted and it IS startling to us that Germany's leadership is not directly elected (ok there's an electoral college, whatever)and therefore nowhere near as accountable/reachable by dissent. maybe that's one of the underlying cuases of them hating on W so much because they can't say a thing about their own pols.
i have some really good feelings about this lady and even though she's nowhere near an american conservative, she's lightyears ahead of lucy's boyfriend on the cool scale. viel gluck d-landers!!

[disillusioned_german]

Sadly Merkel's light-years from being a Margaret Thatcher. Being a woman from East Germany doesn't automatically make you a good leader. Well, we'll see - I guess anything's better than Schroeder and Fischer...

[Pamela]

It's about 6:30 am German time.

Good luck Germany. Go VOTE!
(Just not for the Greens, ok?)

[Wallace]

Thanks for the update and the short synopsis of the situation. We're anxious to see the results of the election......and hopefully some positive changes.

[joe]

Yes please go out and vote. A lot of Americans died so you could do this even if you dislike us.

Regardless who wins it should make for good entertainment. Little of substance will change except more people will take time off to be marching in the streets and the new left party will become a factor in future elections.

Anti Americanism will only increase as the pain of reality effects more and more germans. One might say the party is over. It is now just a question of when the lights are going to be turned off.

[Charlie]

Best wishes for a positive outcome that will help Germany move forward on the road to success!

[QuagmiredInTheBRD]

The Saturday edition of the Darmstädter Echo had an interesting editorial on page 2 entitled "Vor der Wahl" in which the highly regarded american economist, Adam Posen, was cited:

"Fragt man den angesehenen amerikanischen Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Adam Posen, wie diese aussehen sollte, antwortet er: „Die Idealvorstellung eines liberalen Ökonomen wäre eine Regierungskoalition aus CDU, FDP und Grünen, ohne CSU.“ Diesen Wunsch wird man ihm nicht erfüllen können, zumal Posen Angela Merkel, die in einer solchen Konstellation Bundeskanzlerin werden würde, dringend davon abrät, zur (notwendigen) Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten wie von der CDU geplant die Mehrwertsteuer zu erhöhen.

http://www.echo-online.de/unsere_meinung/meinung_detail.php3?id=322808

[QuagmiredInTheBRD]

Here's a link to the interview with Adam Posen in the FAZ:

http://www.faz.net/s/RubAC861D48C098406D9675C0E8CE355498/Doc~E5EF81EEE670B42929142D872F8A10329~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

[Scout]

@ disillusioned_german: I wouldn't sell her short yet. As a matter of fact, I read that Maggie was one of Angie's "heros." Nevertheless, I agree that Angie's ability to effect any changes is limited by the German system and German society itself. There is simply so much inertia in the form of party politics, civil servants, bureaucracy, and Nanny State thinking that makes a wide-reaching reform as in the UK nigh-on impossible in Germany. Reformers have a tough time here, because Germany doesn't want to be reformed.
I'll just be overjoyed to see Idiots (with a capital I) like Trittin, Kunast, Bulmahn, Eichel, and let's not forget Stolpe (DER Brandenburger Tor) get sent to the desert.

[Justin Time]

David, if there is a grand coalition, which cabinet positions will the SPD get? (would Schroeder want one?)

[Hartmut]

If there is a grand coalition, I hope Merkel will be generous and give the SPD the cabinet positions for Sports, Culture, ..., uhm, errrr ...., Ikebana, Mesmerism and Bellydance!

[Scout]

@Justin: I don't think Schröder's ego would fit in a mere cabinet position.
@Hartmut: Sorry, but I don't agree. Even those cabinet positions would be too dangerous. They could still do the standard SPD trick of dedicating millions for studies (conducted by their party buddy consultants, of course) to allegedly confirm what they wanted to say in the first place about Ikebana, Mesmerism and Bellydance. Then, the next thing you know we would have some sort of Dienstvorschrift about Ikebana that would somehow manage to make everyone's life miserable at tremendous cost to the few remaining taxpayers. ;-)

[Kuch]

In terms of Merkel's improved relations with the US, I don't think she can be expected to make monumental improvements overnight. You have to understand the whole reason for this website is that the media in Germany is decidedly left, and if not Anti-American, then certainly biased with respect to America. And one cannot underestimate the effect of the media on a society. We in America should only hope for a "slight" movement toward more normal transatlantic relations. After all, we don't expect a lock-step approach from Germany. We would just like a goverment in Germany that does not seem overzealous in highlighting foriegn policy disagreements for domestic political gains.