DER SPIEGEL's Struggle for Tomorrow: Where's Europe?

(By Ray D.)

The most recent DER SPIEGEL cover is striking for a number of reasons. First of all, it assumes the future will be defined by a gripping struggle between the United States and China for international power and influence. An American eagle and a Chinese dragon, both essentially the same size, are shown dramatically grappling atop the world:

"China Against USA: Struggle for the World of Tomorrow"

Of course we all know that DER SPIEGEL has never been particularly good at predicting the future. The magazine's crystal ball has long been steeped in a thick haze of left-wing dogma. One only need recall the infamous 'Bush Meter' that gave John Kerry a 75% chance of victory just three months before the election and the supremely confident DER SPIEGEL cover that declared that it was "five to twelve" for the cowering little cowboy George W. Bush a full eight months before the election. Or how about that prediction that the national election in Great Britain would end with negative "shock results" for Tony Blair and his Labour party? And let's not forget the article SPIEGEL ONLINE dropped a day before the vital state election in North Rhine-Westphalia predicting a rapidly shrinking CDU lead and a "photo finish" result. Didn't happen. For the past decade, DER SPIEGEL has also reflexively predicted that every conflict involving the United States military, including Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, would be the next Vietnam, haunted by what the publication lovingly labels the "ghost of Vietnam." Clearly, those predictions of doom and defeat haven't panned out either, to the great dismay of the 1968 ideologues who run the magazine.

So when the recent "China Against USA" cover appeared, we at Medienkritik weren't overly impressed at DER SPIEGEL's attempt at a grand display. Although China is clearly on the rise and may eventually challenge the West, it still has a long and winding road ahead before it approaches the United States economically, politically and militarily. The unstable and seemingly incongruous combination of freewheeling capitalism and Communist dictatorship leave many questions unanswered about East Asia's emerging giant. And if China someday approaches the power of the United States, (if that ever happens), there is no guarantee that other nations wouldn't have already surpassed the Chinese in the race to the top. But none of those very real considerations really struck us as sharply as this...

The Struggle for Tomorrow: Where's Europe?

So where is the European bull in all of this and why isn't he atop the globe struggling for the future with the eagle and dragon? That which is left out tells us just as much about DER SPIEGEL's vision of the future as that which is included. This is partly because the magazine has long been a cheerleader for the European cause. But even the biggest Europa fans don't see the continent on a path to future success and greatness as a dominant world player. Domestically, the EU's two largest economies, Germany and France, are currently stuck in neutral while China and the USA continue to grow and prosper. In terms of foreign policy, with no major military threat to speak of, the EU has become dependent on a one-dimensional, consensus-based diplomacy that has proven a failure time and again, most recently in Iran. As Senator John McCain recently put it, "Our European friends don't have a strong military, so they always believe that diplomacy is the answer."

In other words, the Europeans' lack of a strong military has made them necessarily dependent on the United States in any major conflict where diplomacy has failed. It is this fundamental imbalance that has long been at the root of much resentment towards America. And this resentment, coupled with a rabidly anti-American media, has led many Europeans to see China more favorably than the United States. This despite China's appalling record on human rights, lack of democracy and the nation's militant posturing towards Taiwan.

So why are so many Europeans willing to give China a free pass while bashing the USA? Because China has the potential to one day be what many Europeans can never see themselves becoming but desperately yearn to be: A true world player on a par militarily and economically with the United States. And that nagging sense of inadequacy really hurts deep down.

Comments

[FreeFalcon]

The United States recently quashed an arms deal between Israel and China. The Chinese wanted to buy Israeli Phalcon planes and drones, but Jerusalem had to cancel the deal under American pressure. So, the USA seem to be really worried about China's military potential.

[RayD]

The US isn't the only country worried about China's military potential.

[FreeFalcon]

Japan and China are eternal enemies. A friend of mine studied at the university in China and she says that the relationship between Chinese and Japanese is really bad. For example, many restaurants in China don't allow Japanese visitors. And I am sure this "love" is mutual.

[Alan Shore]

It doesn't look like you've actually read the article.

Anyways, this topic has been in the editorial sections for quite some time now. Just yesterday, this was in our newspaper. Everybody (except WalMart) seems to be upset.

"Lord and master, hear me crying! -
[..]
Spirits that I've cited
My commands ignore." (JWG)

[tebox]

btw, there is no "european bull". check out greek mythology. the bull was zeus and the lady on top is who gave europe its name.

[RayD]

@ Alan:

Which article are you referring to? My post was on the cover.

[Pamela]

>>That which is left out tells us just as much about DER SPIEGEL's vision of the future as that which is included.

Oh, I'll say.
They left out India.

[Charlie]

Looks like a Korean dragon to me.

---"When you see a dragon track, count the number of toes. Chinese dragons have five toes, Korean dragons have four toes, and Japanese dragons have three toes."---

http://www.emblibrary.com/EL/new.aspx?date=110602

[Alan Shore]

@Ray
Which article are you referring to?

The cover story of course.

The prediction they make in the article refer to the year "2020, maybe 2040." I mean, come on, who can honestly say what's going to happen 35 years from now? To me this whole SPIEGEL story sounds like Schadenfreude, whereas here people are really upset especially about the artificially low exchange rate.

[James]

Anything is a welcome distraction to Germany's economic spiral downwards...

[Pogue Mahone]

So true - when you don't have a hammer - nothing looks like a nail

[David M. McClory]

Europe is awaiting China as their modern-day Prester John.

[tebox]

@pogue
...and if you have hammer - everything looks like a nail

[M. Simon]

Diplomacy only works in difficult cases through either bribery or the "or else" option.

If mutual interests or bribery do not work there is no plan C.

[steve]

Europe is a bit of a mess. The leadership of the various countries are all concentrating on internal negotiations about EU business, immigration, crime or weak economies. Also, there is no cohesion on foreign policy. I am not saying that their should be, but quite frankly, members of the EU seem to regularly undercut eachother on foreign policy.

Add to that the lackluster economic performance, poor future demographics, and Europe's inability to say what they are really for in a way that captures the imagination, the electorate's growing hostility to the EU, and it all adds up to an uninspiring story.

[OregonGuy]

Just a couple of random thoughts.

From the CIA "World Factbook". USA plus Japan GDP about twice China. A little short...but who quibbles. Add in the EU, India, Canada and Aussieland, and you've got a rough multiplier of four. Without quibble.

Taking a look at what an economist would call an "exongeous variable" the uncertainty surrounding China derives from what I call an extremely large beta value. China has had large GDP increases as a result of "liberalisation". (Funny how increasing capitalist values is viewed as "liberalism" everywhere but in the States and Europe.) The large underlying uncertainty in China is whether or not Nationalism or Democracy will collide.

Throughout the Middle East and Asia the battle between nationalism and the rule of law is being fought. Having recently viewed "Lawrence of Arabia" I was caught musing about the rise of nationalism in Italy and the rise of nationalism in Arabia. In the West we are more willing to acknowledge the importance of legalisms versus statism. We have an expectation of legal treatment that can only be found in the West. Travel to Russia, the Former Soviet Union, or the CIS...whatever, and you'll find the timewarp flux of being neither hither or nither. One of my main theses has been that Russia has been held back in terms of their development eighty years or so due to socialism/communism. Arabia ranges from 800 years to thirty years. Now Asia finally has a fifth modern country in India. (Taiwan, Japan, Auckieland and South Korea; I don't think Malaysia counts.)

I don't think Europe really wants China to succeed as an international player. I think they're dissapointed with modern Russia. At twelve percent of America's GDP they're really a non-player. Yes, they have nukes. But the ability to deliver them is decreasing. China has nukes and their ability to deliver them is increasing. Perhaps some in Europa have a feeling that "the worst possible case scenario" would benefit Europeans. To continue with that kind of paranoid vision, perhaps Arabists would view the "worst possible case scenario" as benefitting them. But any rational view would see that the short-term effects of such an outcome would be devastating to any and all economic players in our now globally interconnected world. Emotional surfing may feel cool to the "player" but the adults know that the outcomes would be devastating to any and all. And I'd put up post-apocolyptic America against anything the World could offer.

Worries about China stem from China's belligerence in the face of our insistence on the value of human beings that are committed to living in our modern world. Does China need more and better nuclear delivery systems? (A rhetorical question.)

No. Neither does Israel, France or Russia.

Then why does Europe persist in granting greater access to defence technologies to China? (Again, rhetorical.)

Dough.

Geetus.

Loot.

Corrupt bastards inhabit many levels of our lives. And just because the Euros are so corrupt, they can't believe the Yanks aren't. Yeah, the prick down the street selling you a care doesn't car about your mom, or your sister or your Grandma's cancer. They'll stiff you twelve ways to Sunday for another hundred bucks. But when it comes to Government we in the States have been lucky. In the main, Republican or Democrat, we're honest. We just simply are. We speak plainly and honestly. If we're talking about our emotional take on an issue, we will repulse you with our maundering. If we're arguing rationally, we'll never hide behind simulation or commit to the slippery slope. Scratch a Yank and you'll find one or the other, the emotional or the logical. But never a liar. Wrong? Of course. You gotta be wrong from time to time to get it right. But not intentionally.

Okay...that's the rant. But whether you are a D or an R...or whatever else is out there...just keep doing what you're doing. Whether or not Europe, or China or anyone else feels like admitting it, you're the bomb. We lead, as Americans, because we're honest, committed to helping others and we're prepared. It's a hell of a party and anybody can join.

[Diskarapur]

Hey folks! Check this out:

http://wwww.amazon.com/gp/reader/0671577948/ref=sib_dp_pt/002-0964815-3586423#reader-link

Sorry--that magazine cover couldn't help but remind me of this!

Ona more serious note, check out these posts from a blogger--an otherwise rather intelligent man-- who's just *salivating* for China (among other players, but China's his biggest bet)to "liberate" or "protect" the world from oh-so-evil America:

http://www.jeffvail.net/2005/07/new-era-resource-wars-economic.html

http://www.jeffvail.net/2005/01/axis-of-example-latin-american.html