SPIEGEL ONLINE: What Was That About a "Photo Finish"?

(By Ray D.)

Just a day before voters went to the polls, SPIEGEL ONLINE bravely predicted a miracle "photo finish" in the North Rhine-Westphalia elections. According to experts known only to Germany's most-quoted news magazine, the CDU's lead in the polls was "rapidly melting away" in the final days before the election. In an article entitled "NRW Election: Swing or Blues?", author Hajo Schumacher wrote of a furious last-minute SPD comeback:

"Election researchers are observing an odd phenomenon: For three days the distance between the SPD and the thought-to-be certain winner CDU has rapidly shrunk. In the opinion of experts it will come down to a photo finish."

Well, so much for that "odd phenomena." The CDU blew away the SPD by nearly eight percentage points, placing far better than most experts expected. This election wasn't a photo finish, it was a head-ringing knockout for the entire SPD. So dramatic was the loss that the Chancellor has decided to call for early elections. It seems the only thing rapidly shrinking now is SPIEGEL ONLINE's credibility and possibly also its readership.   

Of course we don't want to accuse the fair and balanced people at SPIEGEL ONLINE of being SPD election cheerleaders. But reporting on a phony SPD comeback that existed only in a few peoples' imaginations certainly won't help the publication shake the appearance of being firmly biased to the left. And passages like this from Mr. Schumacher's article certainly won't improve the site's reputation either:

"However, for several days the opinion researchers have been registering an odd up and down of the percentages: Very suddenly, since the second of the two TV duels on last Tuesday, the values of the CDU are sinking while the values of the SPD are improving, and "noticeably" at that, as a known election researcher in a small circle who is otherwise known for being reserved declared."

Perhaps our "known researcher" should have stuck to his usual reserved approach. As always, SPIEGEL ONLINE continues to cover its journalistic rear by attributing bogus projections to anonymous "election researchers", "opinion researchers" and "pollsters." That way no one has to take the blame or the responsibility if they turn out to be wrong. In fact in the Schumacher article, only one so-called expert is actually identified: Professor Karl-Rudolf Korte of the University Duisberg-Essen, who is quoted as saying:

"I am not surprised by this development. The CDU has largely mobilized its potential, at the same time there are still 30 percent undecided voters. The majority appear to lean towards the SPD."

The article continues:

"According to Korte's information, the two camps, Red-Green against Black-Yellow, have closed from a difference of 12 percent three weeks ago to three percent, which about corresponds to the margin of error of the pollsters. "Nothing at all has been decided," so Professor Korte, "it is like a marathon with photo finish.""

Wrong Professor. It is like a marathon and the winner is miles ahead and you are miles from the truth.

Perhaps the truly odd phenomena is how often SPIEGEL ONLINE has incorrectly predicted the outcome of several recent elections, especially when conservatives or supporters of the Iraq-war have ended up the winners. Remember the recent election in Great Britain? SPIEGEL ONINE author Dominik Baur wrote this opening paragraph in an article entitled "Labour Fears Shock-Results", just one day before the British election:

"Iraq war here or there - up to now, a victory for Tony Blair in tomorrow's parliamentary elections seemed to be as certain as the absolute majority for the CSU in Bavaria. However, now it could, according to pollsters, still be close for the British Prime Minister."

Doesn't that sound remarkably similar to the Schumacher article? The race could still be close...a photo finish...shock-results...a comeback... Not! Tony Blair slam dunked his competition. So did the CDU. Game over, lights out.

Oh yeah, while we are on the subject, let's not forget the US election. Remember the good old Bush meter that, at one point, only gave the US President a 25 percent chance of winning against Kerry? Remember the article SPIEGEL ONLINE ran three weeks before the US election entitled "Interview with US Media Critic: Bush Victory Highly Unlikely" in which another objective expert explained why John Kerry was destined to win? Remember the cocky, self-confident Der SPIEGEL cover published over eight months before the election? (Is there a pattern here?):

Will America Be Democratic Again? Five to Twelve for George W. Bush

So here is a little advice if you are a bookmaker in Las Vegas or just someone interested in politics: SPIEGEL ONLINE is usually wrong about elections. It pays to bet against them, especially when they are in the midst of one of their usual election-time fantasies.

Comments

[Lou Minatti]

I hope this is a sign that Germans have woken up from their "America is the enemy!" spell. But I am not counting on it.

[Jewels (AKA Julian)]

SPON = National Enquirer or Daily Sun. No, I take that back. At Least the Enquirer checks thier facts before publishing them

[Sandy P]

Let me guess, Zogby was the expert.

OT: Kai, regarding guns, found Gun Facts at ammoday.com.

It's in adobe. so no link. I don't know how to do that.

Lots of mythbusting there.

[ic]

Evil Karl Rove strikes again! France will be next.

[D.P.]

You forgot to mention the advertising banner for the SPD that was placed exactly on the same side as this stange article. Of course newspaper have collect money, but advertising banners for a political party next to an article refering to an election is not very appropriate for a newsmagazin that claims to be neutral

[Grendel]

Whether the German magazine Spiegel Online reports about close races or not, doesn't neccessarily mean they have a measurable one-sided effect on the election. If a person with authority in public claims that "The majority appear to lean towards the SPD." and "nothing at all has been decided" then what happens is one of the following alternatives:
1. A voter who already voted (either way) can only wait and watch the results
2. A voter who hasn't voted yet can choose to stay at home because he doesn't care
2.1 He can go to support his party (note that this applies to _all_ parties, not only one in particular)
2.2 He can go to vote against another party (he might see as the lesser evil or out of any other reason).

The biggest effect is that the turnout increases - and indeed, the turnout was at around 63,0% (56,7% in 2000).

P.S.: Spiegel still sells double as many magazines as Focus, there's no indication this will change.

[Ricardo III]

In the Eurovision Song Contest France got place before last and Germany came in last.
Greece won.

As for the election, well, so much trouble and economic distress bubbling up around the arse that even the SPD voters finally realized that the politics of the Left are a disaster.
But who knows, another flood disaster or US bashing opportunity, a better looking candidate than our good girl Angela Merkel and the new election even could be lost.

[Joe]

This and That

Spiegel’s readership is less than that of the internal magazine published by IG Metall.

Spiegel might serve the same purpose as the AJC does in Atlanta. Each election cycle the editorial board of the AJC endorses candidates in all the races. Many, myself included, find this to be useful.

If the AJC endorses candidate “A”, then we vote for candidate “B”, if we really do not know much about the either candidate. It so pains the AJC to endorse a Republican or a conservative that it tries to limit these endorsements to only a few in each election cycle. When it does this, it means the demo is a REAL LOSER.

[amiexpat]

@jason..
one of my favorite quotes about Iraq came from Merkel..
'Auschwitz was not freed with diplomacy'

[Huan]

Perhaps Spiegel's article was not wrong, rather it was wishful thinking. Perhaps it was an attempt to manipulate events and make the news rather than reporting the news.

[amiexpat]

@Huan,
if you are right, that just proves the point that German media is trash.. trying to manipulate events rather than report them..

[Erik Eisel]

Afghanistan, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine, Lebanon...and now freedom and democracy are spreading to Germany.

Let's throw a party in Mainz:-)

[Paul]

About what you wrote, "...journalistic rear by attributing bogus projections to anonymous "election researchers", "opinion researchers" and "pollsters." "

What's up with them being "anonymous"? Let me guess.

A. They don't exist, at all.

B. They do exist, but don't want their names used, because they have taken sides and don't want to ruin their professional credibility with being known as untruthful hacks.

C. The ace writers/reporters forgot to get their names.

The news of the election is good for Germany, and proof that good, free people have the right to be wrong, recognize their error and correct it at the next election. From what I have read, the extreme lefty crap has been poured on the German voters and they were able to see through it. All free people, and expecially conservative/free(ier) market fans should be happy. I'll make a small prediction, the left will begin to blame the German voter, saying that they were "duped, panicked, lied to, stupid, etc." We all know the drill. Again congratulations Germany.

Paul from Florida.

[madawaskan]

Darn it! I live in Vegas please don't help the bookies...Hopefully bookies don't read blogs...heh.

Hey who wants to bet which magazine is more bias Newsweek or Spiegel?

Wow!-now THAT would be a photo finish. [I don't think either mag will be happy until a Communist regime is in place that will put them both out of business.-Fatalists.]

[poguemahone]

hey guys - you made it onto OpinonJournal from the WALL STREET JOURNAL

http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110006726

[Lou Minatti]

The results of this election really don't mean anything. Not until Protest Babes start showing up.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/000813.html

[Kosmopolit]

Whoa! Check this! Der Spiegel reports that leftist icon Salvador Allende was not only a Marxist but also a Nazi!

What is up with that? Doesn't sound like SPON...

Bet the author of that one loses his job sehr bald
http://noonshadow.blogspot.com/2005/05/cognitive-dissonance-v-dcclii.html

[WhatDoIKnow]

A few days ago, when waiting for a flight to Germany, the publication that a German traveler was reading was Der Spiegel. This doesn't prove anything, it's just... trivia. The fact is that many Germans take Spiegel's (dis)information for the ultimate truth, not to be questioned. I am sure this will change in the future, but it will take a very long time. As long as its readers don't see any reason to think for themselves, nothing will change.

[Mike H.]

So you only now found out that "Der Spiegel" leans heavily to the left? Duh!! It's a well known fact and "Der Spiegel", as other German publication is upfront about it and proclaims it proudly. So you know what you are getting.

If you don't know that it's a left leaning magazine you either: 1) can't read German, 2) arrived only yesterday in Germany or 3) you have been living under a rock.

That Germans read it is because it is one of the most widely recognized and circulated weekly magazines. I never buy it because I so disagree with it and don't want to subsidize it (it's also insanely expensive at "Out of Town News" in Harvard Square) but I know many conservative Germans who do anyway.

[Joe]

same school of journalism as the Newsweek staff.