(By Ray D.)
Many German opponents of the Iraq war believe they were right in 2003 and that they are right now, albeit for somewhat different reasons and the benefit of hindsight. To them, Iraq is a disaster-debacle-quagmire and anyone who disagrees must be either a warmonger or wearing a thick pair of rose-colored glasses. They can't seem to imagine a viewpoint between total doom and total optimism. That lack of nuance is striking for a group of people who pride themselves on the ability to discern the many shades of gray in the world.
No one represents this view more eloquently than Joschka Fischer, Germany's former Foreign Minister. In an essay published by SPIEGEL ONLINE entitled "Tehran's Secret Helper," Fischer lashes at US involvement in Iraq and claims that the reality on the ground is far worse than expected. In so doing, he assumes that offense is the best defense and that those who opposed the war will no longer be required to justify their own positions. Unfortunately for Joschka, there is the ugly question, a counterfactual if you will, of how Iraq and the wider Middle East would have looked today and in the future had Saddam Hussein and his sons remained in power. The moral implications of that potential outcome are something that the ex-minister and his fellow travelers would rather we not think about. He writes:
"After all, since the administration of George W. Bush decided to remove Saddam Hussein from power by war, just about everything went wrong that possibly could have. What is more, the reality in Iraq and the surrounding region far surpassed all negative expectations and fears, and it continues to do so today." (emphasis ours)
It would be ridiculous to claim that all is well in Iraq. But it is equally ridiculous for Mr. Fischer to claim that the reality in Iraq and the surrounding region has "surpassed all negative expectations and fears." How could one interpret Libya's recent surrender of its weapons programs or Syria's retreat from Lebanon as confirmation of our darkest fears for the Middle East? How could one interpret the elections and the formation of an Iraqi government as such? How could one interpret the systematic training and expansion of Iraqi security forces as such?
And whose expectations and fears, exactly, is Mr. Fischer talking about? Let's go back and examine, for a moment, what members of his very own Socialist-Green government predicted before the war:
Claudia Roth (Greens) predicted that an attack on Iraq would unleash a firestorm in the wider Middle East, implying that the entire region could be thrown into a state of war.
Olaf Scholz, Secretary General of the SPD (Schroeder's Social Democratic Party): The war will "likely result in the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent people."
Heidi Wieczorek-Zeul (SPD), Minister of Development Aid: She expected "hundreds of thousands of innocent people, civilians, children, women" to become war victims, and she expected two to three million refugees. Like Roth, Zeul also said that the Iraq war would "unleash an unimaginable firestorm" in the region.
Jürgen Trittin (The Greens), Minister for the Environment: "The Ministry of the Environment has several studies, among them UN documents. According to these 40.000 to 200.000 victims of military actions can be expected. (...) We are afraid, that up to 200.000 more people might die from the consequences of a war."
Wolfgang Thierse, President of the German Parliament (SPD): "I think of the millions of people in Baghdad, who will be victims of bombs and rockets."
Not only haven't those expectations been surpassed, they were totally off the mark. There has not been a wider war. There was not and has not been an exodus of millions of refugees. Hundreds-of-thousands or millions have not died. Iraq is on a slow and admittedly painful path to self-rule and democracy. Wouldn't it be nice if Mr. Fischer had the moral courage to admit that members of his own party and government were wrong instead of perpetuating the ridiculous lie that all negative expectations have been surpassed? It seems that our ex-Foreign Minister has a highly selective memory. He continues:
"The question is whether the majority of US citizens were ever really prepared to pay the very high military, political, economic, and moral cost for such an imperial enterprise, and to pay for it over a long period of time. We know today that the answer is "No." But such a negative answer was already to be expected in 2002 and 2003, and would have been the starting point if the actual reason for the war had been placed at the center of the domestic debate in the US. That's why other reasons for going to war were invoked - weapons of mass destruction and international terror - reasons that have quite obviously not held up to reality."
It is interesting to note that Mr. Fischer, who now basks in the glow of hindsight, belonged to a government that itself believed that Saddam Hussein possessed WMD and was dangerously close to building an atomic bomb as late as 2001. Additionally, while Saddam Hussein may not have been closely linked to Al-Qaeda, he did support international terror by awarding the families of Palestinian suicide bombers $25,000. He also ran a government that terrorized, murdered, raped and tortured its own people on a mass scale and invaded two neighbors.
Furthermore, how can Mr. Fischer claim that the American people are unwilling to pay the cost in Iraq? Obviously, many in America have grown dissatisfied with the war and its progress. Many now see the war as a mistake. Perhaps even a majority. But most Americans also believe that it would be wrong to cut and run in Iraq before the country is stabilized. The ups and downs in the polls to which Mr. Fischer refers are very different from the overall willingness of the American people to get the job done and pay the necessary price in Iraq in the long-term. Put another way: Mr. Fischer underestimates the will of the American people to succeed in Iraq at his own peril.
Finally, Mr. Fischer speaks of terrorism:
"And it is here that we encounter a fourth question, that concerning the role of terrorism in Iraq and in the region. The battle against terrorism was one of the main arguments for the war in Iraq, but this argument has transformed into its opposite. If the al-Qaida terror network was on the defensive after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks and the war in Afghanistan, this situation has been reversed since the war in Iraq. For international jihad terrorism, Iraq has historically taken on the same mobilizing function that the Islamic and national resistance to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan had in the 1980s. Then, it was Pakistan that became the main beneficiary of the Afghan power vacuum; in today's Iraq, that role falls to Iran."
The comparison of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan to the US occupation of Iraq is a striking indicator of Mr. Fischer's finely tuned moral relativism. While the Soviets brought oppression and Communism to Afghanistan, the United States has brought the hope of self-rule and democracy to Iraq and the wider region. The obvious difference seems lost on the former Foreign Minister. Mr. Fischer's claim that Al-Qaeda terrorists have been strengthened by the Iraq conflict is simply not borne out by the facts. Ambushes, car bombings and hit and run attacks are hardly the weapons of an offensive force. Recent reports hardly support the view that Al-Qaeda is growing in strength in Iraq, despite the fact that attacks are up in recent months. Iraqi security forces continue to grow in strength and capability, threatening the very long-term existence of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Additionally, Al-Qaeda has been most active in Afghanistan of late. Does Mr. Fischer also see German involvement there as a recruiting tool for Al-Qaeda? Is it time to pull the Western troops out of Afghanistan to avoid "attracting" more Taliban fighters? Would such a move serve to stabilize the region? Canadians no longer support the mission...couldn't we have foreseen this?
As far as Iran goes, it is true that the Islamic republic is now supporting unrest and insurgent activity in Iraq. But does Mr. Fischer honestly believe that Iran prefers American troops at its doorstep in both Iraq and Afghanistan? Secondly, Iran will only receive long-term benefits from the US presence in Iraq if the US and its allies decide to abandon the country before it has the capacity to defend itself from threats foreign and domestic. This may be what Joschka's friends are hoping for deep down, but no one in American politics with any influence is suggesting such a course of action. Mr. Fischer's opinion of America's conduct of the war seems based entirely on week-to-week opinion polls that show lagging support for the war. This brand of political decision making, based on the ebb and flow of popular sentiment and poll numbers, may be what drove Mr. Fischer politically, but it is not what drives America politically. Not entirely at least.
In closing, Mr. Fischer's all-out paint-it-black offensive seems to be part of a disingenuous political game of "see I told you so." He apparently hopes to exploit waning support of the Iraq war to take back the moral high ground through a campaign of exaggerated negativity and denial of reality. Unfortunately for Mr. Fischer, not everyone has forgotten that his policies would have left Saddam Hussein and his sadistic sons in power for decades to come with little or no hope of democratic change in the region. Not everyone has forgotten that the German government believed that Iraq had WMD and was close to building a nuclear weapon. If anything, Mr. Fischer was Saddam's secret helper, and for that he should be held accountable. The point is not that the current situation in Iraq is all roses. It obviously isn't. The United States and its government have made a number of mistakes and the insurgency continues. The war in Iraq will be a tough slog and people are dying every day. But to say that everything is totally hopeless is just as ridiculous as to say that all is well. It is entirely possible to support the effort to democratize and stabilize Iraq while honestly acknowledging the many problems and mistakes along the way. Of that Mr. Fischer seems completely incapable.
UPDATE: Two 500 pound bombs put an end to al-Zarqawi in Iraq after apparent tips from local Iraqis. Is Al-Qaeda still on the offensive in Iraq now Joschka?
UPDATE #2: The US Senate rejects a cut and run proposal 93-6. Tell me again Joschka how America lacks the political will...say what?
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