Old Europe: Rumsfeld was Right

New York Times:

Empty Maternity Wards Imperil a Dwindling Germany

FRANKFURT, Nov. 17 - It is a typical night in the maternity ward of this city's second biggest hospital and the loneliest place is the nursery. Empty baby beds are lined up against a wall like rental cars in an airport parking lot. A colorful mobile hangs hopefully over the still room.

With more than 1,000 beds, a team of doctors and midwives but only a few births a day, the Frankfurt-Höchst hospital has an abundance of everything except babies. ...

"There will be 10 million fewer young people in my lifetime," observed Frank Schirrmacher, an editor at the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, who has written a best-selling book about population trends in Germany. "Our whole infrastructure is designed for a bigger population."

Mr. Schirrmacher and other commentators conjure up a sort of reverse Malthusian nightmare: Germany as a land of predominantly geriatric towns and cities set in a deserted, creeping countryside. ...

The number of deliveries at the hospital has been declining since 1995, when refugees from the war-torn Balkans swelled the numbers. This year, it will barely reach 1,800, or slightly less than five a day. By comparison,

Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, with only 119 more beds than Höchst, had 4,617 births in 2002. ...

Along with the shrinking comes aging. At current birthrates, the number of schoolchildren will fall nearly 12 percent by 2050. One in every three Germans will be over 65, double the ratio today. ...

"Rumsfeld was right: this is 'old Europe,' " Mr. Schirrmacher said. "With the loss of young people and the growth of old people, this country will become more timid and angst-ridden."

(Hat tip Gregory.)

Comments

[Ron]

Yeah, and with all the new births being arabs, they won't have a future to worry about anyway.

[PacRim Jim]

Ten million fewer Germans. Yikes! That's about how many Germans were lost in the two world wars. Do German men have their women turned the right way around?

[john]

This is the Germans' effort to control global warming for the rest of us by limiting production of carbon-dioxide producing entities.

Thank you.

[e m butler]

this seems to be what lack of religious feeling leads to...in the olde days (1950s) grandmas used to ask "so where are the children?"
now the 2nd or 3rd generations cant ask that question because they shrugged their own duty..

[Sock Puppet of Doom]

I am sorry for you all. I don't know what you can to to change it. I suggest you get used to speaking in Arabic and saying inshalah.

[Presumptions]

This will make the socialist parts a bit more difficult.

[Alec Rawls]

German society is plenty wealthy to support children. The problem is that the wealth is in the wrong people's hands. It is the same problem we have here in the United States, where Social Security implements a massive shift of resources from the young to the old, who are already by far the wealthiest cohort in the country. Basically, old people throughout western society are using democracy in an unrepublican (illiberal) fashion, using tyranny of the majority to wage generational war against the young.

Undoing perverse inter-generational transfers is crucial, but those who understand this imperative can rectify the imbalance within their own families without waiting for laws to be changed. Just don't wait until death to pass on inheritances.

Old Germans should be making deals with their few children and grandchildren: Devote yourselves to making babies and we will support you in it. The younger generation should, at the same time, be proposing the same deal to their elders. In a hyper taxed and regulated economy it is very difficult to amass the resources to support children. Young people should be asking their parents: "Do you want grandchildren?" If so, the older generation needs to pony up, because it is they who built the system that makes chilbearing so difficult for their children to support.

[George M]

More gloom for Germany: Check out this month's Consumer Reports. The top 10 most unreliable cars are mostly all German. BMW, Mercedes and VW made the list.

Not only is old Europe losing its population, but its economic cash cow, the auto industry, is losing to the far east.

[Joe N.]

Just like China, except with prompting from the 'me' generation instead of the state.
First there will be no more brothers and sisters. Then no more Aunts and Uncles. Then what we have is a society of strangers, so to speak, since all close ties will only be the ones people force on themselves.
The only relations we'll have is with society as represented largely by the state and perhaps our limited religious and political involvements which are a 'take it or leave it' proposition.
Starting to look like 'Logan's Run', isn't it?

[Joe N.]

It's evidence of a selfish society where people largely have no stake in their own future, and are incapable of true love. Sad. This is our modern world.

[Chomskybot]

The problems described here occur in all modern industrial societies (e.g. Japan has these problems too), so don't make the impression that they are specifically german.

High abortion rates combined with low marriage rates means all of Old Europe will die.

Americans would be wise to reconsider our stance on both abortion and gay marriage rights, not on behalf of any religious purpose but on behalf of the survival of our people.

[Obernai]

Being an American of German heritage, this makes me very sad.

Does socialism = selfish? Having children is a lot of work, is expensive, and restrictive, but there are just a few benefits....

Unfortunately, there is a similar trend here in the US, with young adults more interested in playing with their grown-up toys instead of raising a family with a sense of responsibility.

[Ariks]

Welcome to Jumhuriyat Germania al-Arabiyah!

[niom]

This hole talk reminds me very much of the environment pessimism of the 80th. If these prognoses were correct, we would be mostly dead by now.

The pessimists were wrong almost every time in the past, so why should I join them now? The Americans and there allies will defeat militant islam and we in Europe are going to have a peaceful future!

This sucks for Europe and I find it baffling that whole homogeneous populations could effectively Un-breed themselves out of existence (I wonder if there are any historical antecedants to this).

However, lest we Americans get too cocky, know this: the birthrate in New England is virtually the same as in Europe. If you discount immigrants, the birthrate in America is still higher but not by a whole lot. It is immigrants and their kids that really bring us into good numbers. So, thank you former Mexicans, you and your many kids, you are helping us create a future with more Americans. I only wish you were taller.

[Chomskybot]

"Americans would be wise to reconsider our stance on both abortion and gay marriage rights, not on behalf of any religious purpose but on behalf of the survival of our people."

1. This implies that there wouldn't be any illegal abortions, abortion in foreign countries (I think the Netherlands will never make it illegal) etc. when abortion would be forbidden. I think german women would find their way around a ban. Or people will take greater care of contraception.
The hypothesis that banning abortion will lead to more children needs to be proven in any case.
2. This implies that gay people would have children if they had to marry women. A hypothesis that needs to be proven too.

[niom]

Chomskybot: "This implies that gay people would have children if they had to marry women."

No, this doesn't imply this.

The most importend reason to have marriage is to protect the children. To have a father and a mother is the best ambience for children. The state gives a lot of privileges to people who vow to create such an safe place for children. Now a lot of gays want to marry their fuck buddies just to get this privileges too. To throw this privileges to everybody who wants them is not going to work.

regardless of whether or not gays will enjoy the same priviledges, they will still live with their partners and not recreate. (Unless they decide on artifical insemination etc... .)

Let this idiots in Old Europe do what they want. They always digging their own graves. Why stop them ? I never saw a population where money is more important than in Germany. Money is what counts nothing else. Children means less money so no children. Child or new Mercedes ? New mercedes. This society is doomed to death. Especially this people who care so much about the enviroment are responsable for this shit. This was all imagination, but the real dangers this people don't see like it always in world history was.

I know some gay people. I made the experience that they said they like men more than woman. Ok. But I saw what they do when they speak to woman. They had totally problems doing this. They felt unsecure ... I had not the impression that they were not liking this woman. This is only my impression. But keep this in mind. (I'm not a Nazi which speaks about something wrong or so.) But maybe is something which all this fucking feminists reached when they spoke about Woman an men are the same e.tc.

So the Germans are dying out, this should be good news for Germany hating Americans. So stop the whining, the day will come when this is a German free world. Maybe you can fasten the process by throwing some nukes at us.

[jonathan]

I do not speak for everyone of course, but I do not "hate" Germany or Germans. Disappointment is a more correct description. I am disappointed in Germany's weakness and foolishness...more generally that applies to all of Europe.

My family is German/French on one side and Irish/English on the other (probably why we had to leave!!). Europe is our history. Europe is where we came from. Europe is where the Greek philosophy of independence, freedom, strength, and fraternity was turned from a spark to a fire. Now only an ember remains. The Europe of my expectation does not match reality and that is a great sadness.

I don't want to make you fail, I want to make you angry. I want you so angry that you can do nothing but stand up and fight. I want you to remember that you are German and that Germany is something worth defending.

Get off your ass you pathetic fucking losers. Where is your Fabrizio Quatrocchi; where is your heart?

[historybuff]

Hi

Some of you have mentioned that you aren't sure if the population problem is real. Bad news, folks. The minimum birth rate that provides replacement is 2.15 babies per woman--the rate for all of Europe is already down to 1.7, and some countries are down to 1.1--which means that half of Europe's native people will disappear by the year 2080. In case you are wondering, the U.S. has a birth rate of 2.1, which is sufficient to maintain our population. In addition, the U.S. continues to grow because there are many immigrants from all parts of the world, so we do not face the European problem of takeover by a large unified group of people who hate us.

Some countries will choose to maintain their population tax base by admitting more and more immigrants. But that only partially solves one problem while creating an even larger problem--Moslem demographic conquest of Europe. Moslems have never been kind or tolerant of the local culture when they take over. They even enjoy destroying the host country's historic and cultural artifacts, such as the Bamiyan Buddhas.

If you Europeans do not figure out how to change these trends, you are already on the path to destruction. This is not speculation or fantasy or some distant future--it is happening right now.

Possible solutions you might want to think about:
1. Have more children.
2. Change the tax and employment laws to favor more children.
3. Greatly reduce immigration, except for those who are Christians or are willing to convert to Christianity. Shift the priorities and find different countries whose immigrants would be welcome.
4. Remove all existing Moslem troublemakers.
5. Don't allow existing and future immigrants to become citizens unless they convert to Christianity and swear exclusive allegiance to your country.
6. Help the U.S. fight the War on Terrorists and help install democracy in the Moslem world so that those countries can be free and prosperous, which would reduce the emigration from those countries.
7. Stop propping up Middle East dictators in the name of business or Realpolitik--those countries are the source of fanatic terrorists.

There are many other ways to address this problem, but you really ought to discuss this more openly and then do something to solve the problem.